Saints without Rangers: So No Armageddon then?
I wrote a few months ago about the affect Rangers not being in our league would have on Saints finances. Since then a lot has happened, and a club called Sevco Scotland* pretending to be Rangers are playing in the 3rd division of Scottish Football. So, I hear you ask, what has happened to Armageddon and six clubs going bankrupt?
*Sevco Scotland Ltd were last Friday night given a conditional license to play football by the SFA. Yesterday (31st July) Sevco 5088 Ltd changed their name to The Rangers Football Club Ltd, so, as far as I am concerned, Sevco FC play in Division 3. I’m not sure where The Rangers FC play as they don’t have a license. Understand? No? Join the club. That’s for another blog!
Well, not a great deal really. Saints are so confident they are still adding strikers to the squad, with Rowan Vine joining yesterday after scoring twice in a friendly against Bristol City at the weekend. He could be joined by Preston’s Jamaican striker Keammar Daley shortly. Meanwhile, while Rangers were playing about with their business names, the SPL’s Neil Doncaster was outdoing himself in signing a new TV deal with SKY for 13,000,000.
Is that all I hear you cry? What about the Norwegian deals?
Well, lets put that to one side – we already know he’s not the best negotiator, so what does 13,000,000 mean for Scottish football, and Saints in particular?
If you read back to my original article, I estimated the TV deal would reduce from the 18,000,000 that was due to start next season, by 33% (using a report from PWC that said Rangers and Celtic were worth 66% of Scottish Football). That would have left a 12,000,000 TV deal, so i wasn’t far off! However, our deal right now was worth 15,000,000, so that leaves us with a reduction of just 2,000,000.
That’s it. 2,000,000. For a league without Rangers.
Let’s look at how that affects my calculations. Just to remind you, with a prize pot of 15,000,000, this is how the money paid to each league position would look.
Let’s now reduce that by 2,000,000 and see where we are. As you can see, Saints 6th place last season would have seen us get about 1.1m. A similar finish this season would get us 975k. A loss of 150k, about 100k less than I estimated before.
However, that doesn’t give the real picture. There is two important factors that we haven’t discussed;
1) Rangers not being in the league should allow us to finish one place higher. After all, Club 12 are going to be Dundee and we really shouldn’t get beaten by a team that has Carl Finnigan leading the line.
2) Reports are already saying that the split is being renegotiated so positions 3 – 12 will lose just 100k, with Celtic and the club finishing 2nd losing the most.
So, taking this into account, assuming a 5th place finish next season the prize money would look like this,
As you can now see, a Rangerless SPL means Saints would be just 25,000 GBP worse off, with regards TV income. We will now take this figure and bump it into the gate loss from Rangers fans. Just to remind you, the gate loss estimated without Rangers was 117k, based on taking the yearly average attendance and calculating the increase in attendance when Rangers come to town.
This makes the total estimated loss, thanks to Rangers not being around, to be as follows:
As you can see, a total shortfall of 142k can be made up in a few ways. 1. sell more season tickets, or 2. get more paying customers through the gate. If Saints can attract just 396 fans per game extra, spending 20gbp each, we will make as much money this season as we did last.
So come on Saintees… get out there, by your season tickets, and spread the word on what a fantastic deal Scottish Football is this year, especially for families. Armageddon is not going to happen. Let’s show the SFA/SPL that we don’t need Rangers or any other club to survive. Let’s show them that this was the moment Scottish football was reborn and thrived.
Excellent analysis and further proof that the game is both financially and morally better off without the tribute club.
The saints should also be applauded for their policy with regards to free entry for under 12’s – filling empty seats and involving the future fans.
The MSM seem to be avoiding these good news tales and are still in denial about the Armageddon that they all predicted.
I think they could be correct about 1 particular Armageddon event though – if Sevco keep signing these duds on SPL wages they’ll be in Administration in a matter of months. I wonder if the likes of Traynor will be spouting “Div 3 needs a strong Rangers” stories.
Enjoy the season ahead – particularly your wee tussles wi Dundee – and let’s all enjoy a Hun free season
Interesting analysis – however why not just make all the TV money even? It takes all 12 teams to make the league – why should a team that finishes higher up get more? This is a sporting compeitiion and the prizes are winning the league and European football. With these and the success of winning you get increased sponsorship and attendances.
The TV deal then should be shared equally between all 12 clubs as without all 12 clubs there is no deal – we want a more even and competitive league dont we? That would be part of the answer. There is no way that the team finsishing 1st should get 4 times the TV money of the team finishing 12th if we want a more competitive and fair league. This just helps keep the biggest at the top and the smallest at the bottom – its designed to help the largest clubs.
Im a Dons fan BTW.
i left the tv money split the way that is most likely to happen at the end of the season. I actually agree almost with the way the split is done. If Saints won the league (ok, being realistic, finished second) I would want more money than the 12th placed team too!
Alice – your post has been deleted. If you want to call people ****heads please instead post on one of the links below. The numbers of fans against Rangers are clearly listed above. Whether they are Rangers fans or not is completely irrelevant to this article – all it considers is the number of paying punters.
http://www.followfollow.com
http://www.rangersmedia.com
I did a quick calculation: even distribution would then leave every club getting £10833333. That would leave 1st with a big drop and 2nd/3rd with reasonable drops then 4th and 5th small drops. From 6th to 12th would see an increase.
Personally I think that makes far more sense – then all clubs know exactly what they will get before the season ends – no budgeting for 3rd and finishing 11th leaving a massive whole in the budget.
The biggest drop would obviously be for the top team – in this case Celtic – however compared to their total income this stream is a far smaller percentage of their income than the rest so they could easily absorb it.
Its time in my opinion to design out the things that were designed in to keep the big bigger and the small smaller. This is supposed to be a competition based on sporting merit not based on who creates the rules.
Great read… but you still owe me £10!!
christ you have a good memory. when the herald pay me for the work last month I’ll have the money wired to you. drop me an email on stevensan@hotmail.co.jp
What will the extra attendances be against Dundee Fc? Surely this negates the Home attendances we would have had against Rangers?
i think it will probably negate it entirely. The av. attendance re: Rangers was not that high, so it won’t take many fans from Dundee to make the difference. All this talk of Armageddon, and the reality is Rangers not in the league will have very little financial difference at all.
Very little financial difference? Yes 20 million wiped from TV deal,and the deal was only put in place when it was agreed to show rangers games which equals no rangers no TV deal.”no financial difference ”
edit: please read this before commenting again. Your not quoting facts. https://saintinasia.wordpress.com/2012/08/01/saints-without-rangers-so-no-armageddon-then/
Good luck in selling your extra 570 season tickets. Get them here … 3 for a tenner!!!
that’ll be one Adult ticket in the Ormond stand and 2 child tickets then. That’s what football should cost… its not all about the prawn cocktail brigade!
“Reports are already saying that the split is being renegotiated so positions 3 – 12 will lose just 100k, with Celtic and the club finishing 2nd losing the most.”
Yet your amended figure for the renegotiated distribution of without-Rangers money gives 1st place £2.3m, rather than £2.21m…
I believe I took 250,000 off 1st place and 750,000 off 2nd place, with 100k off the remaining 10 places (total of 2m). I will check in the AM whether I got the sums right!
Does this new look include what could happen if we get the 11-1 majority vote changed so that we can re-negotiate the distribution? Having that in place yes, will cause Celtic to have the biggest shortfall, but then the TV money is nothing compared to where they get the rest of their turnover from. Argument wise you could say that if it hasn’t, then the deficit becomes almost non-existant, and teams from the SFL will be getting more money from this. Funny how one of the duoloply going to the wall makes for a fairer distribution being ALL scottish clubs.
Being managed soundly and wIth Celtic visiting McDiarmid twice this season (once last year), and Dundee in the SPL, I’m pretty sure St Johnstone will fill the financial gap easily.
I agree with our general thrust, but most of the stuff in this post is made up and not really any better than a Daily Record piece. Why do you think the proposed deal was for £18m a season? Why do you think last year we got £15m? Most reports have put the previously proposed figure at £16m a year (£80m over 5 years) and last year’s figure at £13m (£65m over five years), so there is actually less of a drop (after the SFL have been paid) than you are saying.
There hasn’t been any proposal put forward to adjust the distribution yet, though I’m sure it will happen. I’d be astounded if first place kept as large a percentage as you suggest. In the end, the diddy clubs will almost certainly be *better* off in terms of distribution of prize money.
i very much doubt celtic will give up much of 1st place prize money, and can see the 2nd place losing the most, although, it will be a large gain to whichever side gets it this season.
yes, figures are not set in stone, but a stark contrast to the 3m figure being branded about less than a month ago!
Remember, it was as recent as 2 weeks ago that Doncaster was telling us to prepare Armageddon and the end of Scottish Football. The result? Nothing more than a whimper.
You are misunderstanding me. I am saying that *you* are *overestimating* the impact, not underestimating it. We did not get £15m last year, so there is no £2m drop.
I really don’t understand the comment on Celtic. They won’t have any choice but to take less money. Changes to the distribution need an 11-1 majority – so change will now come because the OF cannot block it any more. I guess it’s too late for this season’s distribution, though.
I take it this 13m from Sky isnt including the figures Doncaster was giving us, 3.5m ESPN & 1m Star sport (US rights) that could still be added to this 13m?
the 13m figure is purely from press reports this morning. I have no idea how accurate it is in regards other payments or oversea’s rights. As far as I can see this is 13m just for UK rights, which, considering the last deal was 10m +5m for overseas rights (IIRC) then this would actually be a better deal, and should the 5m from oversea’s rights stay very close to the 18m/year figure that was meant to start from next season!!
Again, you are just making things up. UK and Irish rights were £13m last year. According to press reports it’s going to be about the same this year. The proposed deal was for £16m a year, not £18m. Overseas rights have been quoted at £2.75m a year for last year – nobody knows what will happen to them, but I can’t see why there would be a significant drop as SPL is just filler almost everywhere it is shown.
Doncaster quoted last month that SKY paid 10m with ESPN and oversea’s rights making up another 5m.
The 18m figure I used originally came from Regan’s quotes, which I am sure included the total prize pot, which would have included other sponsorships. Hence, this time, I stuck to the 15m figure quoted by Doncaster.
Semantics aside, the point is, armageddon was made up to suit an agenda. Pure and simple.
One small point – The £13m figure being banded about in press reports is the total figure. There is still the annual payment to the SFL and then the SFL rights which = £3m/season. Therefore, the actual money to SPL clubs = £10m.
If I remember correctly, Star Sports have decided against renewing any contract, however I’d fully expect ESPN to renew at a reduced rate similar to Sky.
Just saying that the 13m deal is a minimum, possible 3/4m from ESPN /other rights.
think we can safely say that we’re no worse off without Rangers.
yeah, bendan has just made the same point. I think your both right. Will do a little more research into this and see what this actually covers.
I think there is a lot of different numbers floating around the web, so would be good to get them in one place and see what is what.
What about the £3M that has to come out of the £13M pot to go to SFL, that would somewhat change your bottom line no?. So The Daily Record (I know) reckons its only a £10M pot
The £3m to the SFL includes the £2m that would go to them anyway (and went to them last year). There’s £1m to be paid to the SFL for the TV rights to their games, so a £13m deal means £12m to the SPL. All these figures are just for UK/Ire rights.
Remember, there is other broadcasting money. The BBC pay for highlights and internet rights, and BBC Alba also pay (a little) for the as-live rights to one game. Overseas rights might well raise as much as they did last year; there are more and more pay-tv sports channels around the world looking for live content.
yeah, i think we’re on the same wavelength now bendan… your right – if this doesn’t include oversea’s rights then clubs are going to be better off without Rangers in the league. I think a little more research is needed!
thanks
but 2m always comes out of the pot. and already has. The 15m figures from last season included this as well, so whatever the deductions, the net affect is the same. Indeed, if this new figure doesn’t include oversea’s rights (that I am now suspecting it doesn’t) then we could actually be looking at exactly the same deal as last season!!
Great number-crunching again!
Now how about an analysis of how Rangers’ absence will affect clubs’ home attendances? Not as much as feared, I’d guess. eg. Hibs had higher attendances in the derbies and against Dunfermline than they did against Rangers. Possible influence of home fans who stay away from Rangers games (eg. my friend’s St Johnstone-supporting Uncle Ian).
Saints have a large number of fans who don’t attend any Rangers or Celtic home matches, but will attend all others.
‘nough said…
The new Sky deal is only £13m per annum and £3m of that now has to be paid to the SFL. That only leaves £10m. How do you stack up your figures?
2m has always been paid to the SFL. the 1 million figure to Rangers is speculation. We also haven’t allowed for any oversea’s rights in this 13m figure. It was purely taken from the statement from the SPL on TV rights.
I will do a bit of research this week and try and pin down all the different figures being banded about to get a clearer picture of where the money goes…
Last season 6th place TV money £1.125m, this season assuming 5th place with the £10m figure, TV money will be £800k which is £325k down. Add in the loss from no Rangers games from your figures £117k. Does your figure £117k include for reductions in catering, hospitality and sponsorship? I suggest you tell the chairman that your figures are better than his.
please explain where your 10m figure is coming from.
SPL have ALWAYS paid 2m to SFL.
Regarding loss of revenue re Rangers away matches to other SPL teams. Unless you finish in the top 6 you aren’t guaranteed 2 home matches against Rangers, so the loss of revenue is very limited. Teams like Hearts had around 14,700 average home attendance last season. they had at least double that wanting to go to the Cup Final, so if some of these fans can turn up for home matches and say boost the crowd by 1000 average extra over the season, which they should do as there is an extra place in Europe up for grabs then the monetary value would out weigh the loss of Rangers by some way. The only club who will really miss Rangers this season is Celtic, not because of any monetary value, but purely for the Old Firm Derby.
I might be wrong but the biggest losers will be 2nd place meanwhile Celtic won’t really be affected at all?